{"title":"Director Gerd Gigerenzer","description":null,"products":[{"product_id":"calculated-risks-book-director-gerd-gigerenzer-9780743254236","title":"Calculated Risks","description":"At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. \u003cp\u003e Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ VERY_GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":49545704276241,"sku":"GOR002479673","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":49678676394257,"sku":"CIN0743254236G","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50484322599185,"sku":"CIN0743254236VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":51006458724625,"sku":"NIN9780743254236","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/0743254236.jpg?v=1751423442"},{"product_id":"gut-feelings-book-director-gerd-gigerenzer-9780670038633","title":"Gut Feelings","description":"\u003cb\u003eWhy is split second decision-making superior to deliberation? Gut Feelings delivers the science behind Malcolm Gladwell's Blink\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e Reflection and reason are overrated, according to renowned psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition?a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions. ?Gladwell drew heavily on Gigerenzer's research. But Gigerenzer goes a step further by explaining just why our gut instincts are so often right. Intuition, it seems, is not some sort of mystical chemical reaction but a neurologically based behavior that evolved to ensure that we humans respond quickly when faced with a dilemma? (\u003ci\u003eBusinessWeek\u003c\/i\u003e).","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ VERY_GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":49581663912209,"sku":"GOR004808994","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ LIKE_NEW \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":49666358509841,"sku":"GOR012457607","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50094202552593,"sku":"CIN0670038636VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":52104751284497,"sku":"CIN0670038636G","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ WELL_READ \/ SBYB","offer_id":53370703413521,"sku":"CIN0670038636A","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/0670038636.jpg?v=1750944650"},{"product_id":"risk-savvy-book-director-gerd-gigerenzer-9780670025657","title":"Risk Savvy","description":"\u003cb\u003eA new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions--by the author of \u003ci\u003eGut Feelings\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eIn this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis--whether it's about next year's stock market or a person's risk of getting cancer--is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, \u003ci\u003eRisk Savvy\u003c\/i\u003e, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. \u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003eYet there's hope. In \u003ci\u003eRisk Savvy\u003c\/i\u003e, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ WELL_READ \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":49640887877905,"sku":"GOR013485896","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50182607438097,"sku":"CIN0670025658G","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ VERY_GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":50977347928337,"sku":"GOR008628278","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":51694244888849,"sku":"CIN0670025658VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/0670025658.jpg?v=1751445084"}],"url":"https:\/\/www.worldofbooks.com\/collections\/author-books-by-director-gerd-gigerenzer.oembed","provider":"World of Books ","version":"1.0","type":"link"}