{"title":"Ralph Hertwig","description":null,"products":[{"product_id":"taming-uncertainty-book-ralph-hertwig-9780262039871","title":"Taming Uncertainty","description":"\u003cb\u003eAn examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world.\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools- simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's \u003ci\u003eadaptive toolbox\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ NEW \/ GARDNERS","offer_id":49729809383697,"sku":"NGR9780262039871","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50452485767441,"sku":"CIN0262039877VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":51334643122449,"sku":"CIN0262039877G","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/0262039877.jpg?v=1751442650"},{"product_id":"deliberate-ignorance-book-ralph-hertwig-9780262045599","title":"Deliberate Ignorance","description":"A self-professed geek born on the Fourth of July, twelve-year-old Ash Beaumont lives, eats, and breathes in the world of challenges. An only child, he adores his parents Joseph and Elizabeth, and family is important. So he's excited when Grandfather Pierre presents him with a special grand looking gift-the Beaumont Family Scrapbook. Covered in brown faded leather, Ash soon discovers that this is much more than a family history with photographs, drawings, illustrations, and notes. It is a life-changer, and he begins to believe in magic when unusual events occur. As he deals with unexpected journeys brought on by the secrets of the scrapbook, he faces a host of person crises-like two sudden deaths in the family and the loss of the use of his legs. But through all of these challenges, Ash can count on the love and guidance of his mother and the unending support of his best friend Dale.","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ NEW \/ GARDNERS","offer_id":49738825662737,"sku":"NGR9780262045599","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":53148066971921,"sku":"GOR014776729","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ VERY_GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":53148922216721,"sku":"GOR011699478","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":53482038198545,"sku":"CIN0262045591VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/0262045591.jpg?v=1751195385"},{"product_id":"simple-heuristics-in-a-social-world-book-ralph-hertwig-9780195388435","title":"Simple Heuristics in a Social World","description":"Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity of the social world does not dictate cognitive complexity as many scholars of rationality argue. Rather, it entails circumstances that render optimization impossible or computationally arduous: intractability, the existence of incommensurable considerations, and competing goals. With optimization beyond reach, less can be more. That is, heuristics--simple strategies for making decisions when time is pressing and careful deliberation an unaffordable luxury--become indispensible mental tools. As accurate as or even more accurate than complex methods when used in the appropriate social environments, these heuristics are good descriptive models of how people make many decisions and inferences, but their impressive performance also poses a normative challenge for optimization models. In short, the Homo socialis may prove to be a Homo heuristicus whose intelligence reflects ecological rather than logical rationality.","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"GB \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":52148260831505,"sku":"NLS9780195388435","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/9780195388435.jpg?v=1757603076"}],"url":"https:\/\/www.worldofbooks.com\/collections\/author-books-by-ralph-hertwig.oembed","provider":"World of Books ","version":"1.0","type":"link"}