{"title":"Predicting The Markets Topical Study","description":null,"products":[{"product_id":"fed-watching-for-fun-profit-book-edward-yardeni-9781948025065","title":"Fed Watching for Fun \u0026 Profit","description":null,"brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50403667575057,"sku":"CIN194802506XG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":51057260495121,"sku":"NIN9781948025065","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":52967902249233,"sku":"CIN194802506XVG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/194802506X.jpg?v=1751029289"},{"product_id":"s-p-500-earnings-valuation-and-the-pandemic-book-joseph-abbott-9781948025089","title":"S\u0026P 500 Earnings, Valuation, and the Pandemic","description":"\u003cp\u003eIn this unique primer, Edward Yardeni and Joseph Abbott, two of the world's most experienced and widely followed investment strategists, provide investors with a practical understanding of the forces that drive the stock market. This study focuses on the S\u0026amp;P 500 stock price index, examining how it is determined by the earnings of the 500 companies that are included in the index and the valuation of those earnings by the stock market. Notwithstanding occasional bear markets, the S\u0026amp;P 500 has been a great investment over the years-so much so that S\u0026amp;P could stand for Success \u0026amp; Profit.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe first chapter in this study covers the various measures of earnings for the S\u0026amp;P 500 and why they favor forward earnings among them. The second chapter discusses various models of valuation, again focusing on the S\u0026amp;P 500.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe final chapter uses the resulting analytical framework to review how it has worked in good times and bad, focusing on the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Virus Crisis.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe market discounts analysts' consensus estimates for revenues and earnings this year and next year on a time-weighted basis. Calculating weekly forward revenues and forward earnings from analysts' estimates can provide very timely insights into the performance of the global economy as well as the underlying trends in quarterly revenues and earnings.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhile this framework provides a disciplined approach to analyzing the macroeconomic fundamentals that are driving earnings, the valuation of those earnings by investors will continue to be much more subjective than objective. Nevertheless, there are fundamental factors that influence valuation multiples. Some, like inflation and interest rates, will always be important in assessing the valuation question. Other factors may be relatively new and worthy of careful analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":50403671212305,"sku":"CIN1948025086G","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":51056453681425,"sku":"NIN9781948025089","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/1948025086.jpg?v=1751125432"},{"product_id":"yield-curve-book-melissa-tagg-9781948025034","title":"The Yield Curve","description":"\u003cp\u003eThe yield curve is now as widely followed by the financial press as movie stars are followed by paparazzi. The tabloids often comment on any noticeable changes in the physical features of the celebrities they stalk. Similarly, the financial paparazzi are obsessed with the shape of the yield curve.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe spread between the long end and the short end of the curve is widely deemed to be a great leading indicator of recessions when it goes negative. Such yield inversions do have a good track record of occurring several months before the start of recessions.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this Topical Study, Edward Yardeni and Melissa Tagg explain that the yield curve neither predicts nor causes recessions. Instead, it predicts the monetary policy course likely to be pursued by the Federal Reserve. Among the topics covered are: \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e1. The relationship of the business cycle to the monetary and credit cycles.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e2. How the shape of the yield curve anticipates financial crises, and reacts to them.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e3. The impacts of globalization on the US bond market and the shape of the yield curve.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e4. How to use the yield curve to predict the Fed's moves and to anticipate recessions, which are always bearish for stocks.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis study includes a Primer on the Yield Curve, based on Dr. Ed's book, \u003cem\u003ePredicting the Markets\u003c\/em\u003e (2018). It also includes several charts useful for gleaning more insights into the relationships of the yield curve to the economy and to financial markets.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"US \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":51057250173201,"sku":"NIN9781948025034","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":51418060652817,"sku":"CIN1948025035VG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/1948025035.jpg?v=1751315708"},{"product_id":"stock-buybacks-book-joseph-abbott-9781948025041","title":"Stock Buybacks","description":"\u003cp\u003eSeveral Progressive politicians have pounced on corporate share buybacks lately. They see buybacks as a major source of income and wealth inequality, subpar capital spending, and lackluster productivity. In their opinion, buybacks have contributed greatly to the stagnation of the standards of living of most Americans in recent years. So they want to limit buybacks or even ban them.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSome of Wall Street's stock-market bears have been growling about buybacks as well. They've been arguing that buybacks have rigged the stock market in favor of the bulls. They claim that companies buy back their stock to boost their share prices, using debt to finance this dubious activity. As a result, corporate balance sheets have become increasingly leveraged, which makes them vulnerable to a recession. Widespread corporate leverage, in turn, would exacerbate any economic downturn. The bears therefore remain bearish and expect to be vindicated with a vengeance, eventually.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this study, Edward Yardeni and Joseph Abbott show that the facts don't support either narrative. The most common reason that S\u0026amp;P 500 companies buy back their shares is to offset the dilution in the number of shares outstanding that results when employee compensation takes the form of stock options and stock grants that vest over time, not just for top executives but for many employees. In effect, the ultimate source of funds for most stock buybacks is the employee compensation expense item on corporate income statements, not bond issuance as the bears contend.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe authors explain that the bull market in stocks has boosted buybacks to a greater extent than buybacks have boosted the market, whereas the opposite is more widely believed. Rising stock prices increase the attractiveness of paying some of employees' compensation with stock grants. Buybacks then are necessary to offset the dilution of earnings per share. While the latest bull market, like previous ones, has been driven by rising earnings, it's a Wall Street legend that earnings per share have been boosted artificially and significantly by stock buybacks. 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