Calculating Credibility by Daryl Press

Calculating Credibility by Daryl Press

Calculating Credibility examines—and ultimately rejects—a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis—not past actions—determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment—sports, gambling, warfare—competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

Scholars have long been trying to drive a stake through the heart of one of the last century's most enduring legacies—MunichThe latest to grip the hammer is Daryl Press, and his well-argued (and commendably concise) book should be required reading for historians and policy wonks alike. Calculating Credibility compares two principal theories of crisis decisionmaking: 'past actions' (i.e., Munich), and 'current calculus.'.

-- Ralph Hitchens * The Journal of Military History *

Daryl G. Press is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.

SKU	Nicht verfügbar
ISBN 13	9780801443435
ISBN 10	0801443431
Titel	Calculating Credibility
Autor	Daryl Press
Serie	Cornell Studies In Security Affairs
Buchzustand	Nicht verfügbar
Bindungsart	Hardback
Verlag	Cornell University Press
Erscheinungsjahr	2005-10-15
Seitenanzahl	240
Hinweis auf dem Einband	Die Abbildung des Buches dient nur Illustrationszwecken, die tatsächliche Bindung, das Cover und die Auflage können sich davon unterscheiden.
Hinweis	Nicht verfügbar