Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making
The Anatomy of Decisions
System 1 and System 2 Thinking
The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality
Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics
An Outline of Things to Come
Chapter 2 Overconfidence
The Mother of All Biases
Overprecision
Overestimation
Overplacement
Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making
Chapter 3 Common Biases
Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic
Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic
Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic
Integration and Commentary
Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness
Inattentional Blindness
Change Blindness
Focalism and the Focusing Illusion
Bounded Awareness in Groups
Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings
Discussion
Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences
Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices
We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty
Framing and The Overselling of Insurance
What's It Worth to You?
The Value We Place on What We Own
Mental Accounting
Rebate/Bonus Framing
Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals
Conclusion and Integration
Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making
When Emotion and Cognition Collide
Self-Serving Reasoning
Emotional Influences on Decision Making
Summary
Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment
The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
Why Does Escalation Occur?
Integration
Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making
Perceptions of Fairness
When We Resist Unfair Ultimatums
When We are Concerned about the Outcomes of Others
Why do Fairness Judgments Matter?
Bounded Ethicality
Overclaiming Credit
In-Group Favoritism
Implicit Attitudes
Indirectly Unethical Behavior
When Values Seem Sacred
The Psychology of Conflicts of Interest
Conclusion
Chapter 9 Common Investment Mistakes
The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions
Active Trading
Action Steps
Chapter 10 Making Rational Decisions in Negotiations
A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations
Claiming Value in Negotiation
Creating Value in Negotiation
The Tools of Value Creation
Summary and Critique
Chapter 11 Negotiator Cognition
The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiation
The Framing of Negotiator Judgment
Escalation of Conflict
Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation
Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation
Anchoring in Negotiation
Conclusions
Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making
Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools
Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise
Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment
Strategy 4: Reason Analogically
Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View
Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others
Strategy 7: Nudge Wiser and More Ethical Decisions
Conclusion
References
Index
