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The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9\/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the \"impossible.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, \"On Robustness and Fragility,\" which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e is a landmark book--itself a black swan.","brand":"WoB","offers":[{"title":"US \/ WELL_READ \/ SBYB","offer_id":49530753057041,"sku":"CIN081297381XA","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":49566285037841,"sku":"CIN081297381XG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ VERY_GOOD \/ SBYB","offer_id":49709404193041,"sku":"CIN081297381XVG","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ LIKE_NEW \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":49870532247825,"sku":"GOR009316437","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"GB \/ VERY_GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":50483207700753,"sku":"GOR002527693","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true},{"title":"GB \/ GOOD \/ INTERNAL","offer_id":50942206083345,"sku":"GOR003667676","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ NEW \/ INGRAM","offer_id":51007991283985,"sku":"NIN9780812973815","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false},{"title":"US \/ LIKE_NEW \/ SBYB","offer_id":51831056531729,"sku":"CIN081297381XLN","price":0.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0784\/4072\/6801\/files\/081297381X.jpg?v=1751107720"},{"product_id":"black-swan-second-edition-book-nassim-nicholas-taleb-9781400063512","title":"The Black Swan: Second Edition","description":"\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES\u003c\/i\u003e BESTSELLER * The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called \"On Robustness and Fragility.\"\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. 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We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, \"On Robustness and Fragility,\" which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. 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Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work?   The answer: too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In his inimitable, pugnacious style, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't.  As Taleb says, \"The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,\" and \"Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. 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The other books in the series are \u003ci\u003eFooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Skin in the Game,\u003c\/i\u003e and \u003ci\u003eThe Bed of Procrustes\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan\u003c\/i\u003e and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls \"antifragile\" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e In \u003ci\u003eThe Black Swan,\u003c\/i\u003e Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In \u003ci\u003eAntifragile,\u003c\/i\u003e Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call \"efficient\" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the \u003ci\u003eTitanic\u003c\/i\u003e save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.\"\u003cb\u003e--\u003ci\u003eThe Economist\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . 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Second edition, revised and expanded  Why are we so often unwilling to accept that life is unpredictable? In this brilliant book Nassim Nicholas Taleb distils his idiosyncratic wisdom to demolish our illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance and erudition against modern philistinism and phoniness. 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Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.  In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncer-tainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resil-ient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.  What's more, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call \"efficient\" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources.  Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.  Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.  Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge and has led three careers around this focus, as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time working in intense seclusion in his study, in the manner of independent scholars, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. 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Procrustes was a  character from Greek mythology who abducted travellers and invited them to  spend the night in a special bed, which they had to fit to perfection. They never did. Those who were too tall had their legs chopped off; those who were too short were stretched.   Every aphorism  here is about a Procrustean bed of sorts - we humans, facing the limits of our  knowledge, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life  and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific  vocabularies and pre-packaged narratives. 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From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management.  Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. 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In \u003ci\u003eAntifragile,\u003c\/i\u003e Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call \"efficient\" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the \u003ci\u003eTitanic\u003c\/i\u003e save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eAntifragile\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.\"\u003cb\u003e--\u003ci\u003eThe Economist\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . 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Tough people do.   In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncer­tainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resil­ient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.  Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.  Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.  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Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights:\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing.\u003c\/b\u003e You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Ethical rules aren't universal.\u003c\/b\u003e You're part of a group larger than you, but it's still smaller than humanity in general.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Minorities, not majorities, run the world.\u003c\/b\u003e The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot.\u003c\/b\u003e \"Educated philistines\" have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find).\u003c\/b\u003e A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* True religion is commitment, not just faith.\u003c\/b\u003e How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you're willing to risk for it.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The phrase \"skin in the game\" is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. 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Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Ethical rules aren't universal.\u003c\/b\u003e You're part of a group larger than you, but it's still smaller than humanity in general.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Minorities, not majorities, run the world.\u003c\/b\u003e The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot.\u003c\/b\u003e \"Educated philistines\" have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find).\u003c\/b\u003e A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e* True religion is commitment, not just faith.\u003c\/b\u003e How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you're willing to risk for it.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The phrase \"skin in the game\" is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. 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