The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster

One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year

"Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility.

With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

FiveThirtyEight.com was founded by Nate Silver, who is also the editor in chief.

SKU	Unavailable
ISBN 13	9781594204111
ISBN 10	159420411X
Title	The Signal and the Noise
Author	Nate Silver
Condition	Unavailable
Binding Type	Hardback
Publisher	Penguin Putnam Inc
Year published	2012-09-27
Number of pages	544
Prizes	Commended for L.A. Times Book Prize (Science/Technology) 2012
Cover note	Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.