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Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information CJ Frank

Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information By CJ Frank

Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information by CJ Frank


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Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information Summary

Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information by CJ Frank

Become a confident leader and use data, experience, and intuition to drive your decisions

Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action - a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist.

Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals.

This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate:

  • Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders
  • Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information
  • Delivering decisions that stick

Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.

About CJ Frank

CHRISTOPHER FRANK is a Vice President in the Global Advertising and Brand Management team at American Express. He is a senior strategist at the intersection of marketing, analytics, and commerce developing superior strategies applied to global markets working with B2B and B2C products. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps (TM) Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the world's leading marketing and management science journals.

Table of Contents

Preface

Prologue: The Certainty Myth

Quantitative Intuition (QI)

Why Combine Quantitative Analysis with Intuition

Biases from Working Intuitively

Biases from Working with Data

Chapter 1: Powerful Questions

Road to Powerful Questioning

Precision Questioning

The Power of Precision Questions

Building an Inquisitive Team Culture

The Smartest Person in the Room

Key Learnings from Powerful Questions

Chapter 2: Framing the Problem

IWIK: A Tool for Reasoning

The IWIK Process

Framing the Decision

Key Learnings from IWIKs

Chapter 3: Working Backward to Move Forward

Defining the Problem by Working Backward

Step 1: Create a Decision Tree

Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs

Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map

Harnessing Inside- versus Outside-of-the-Box Thinking

Working Backward: Taking the Road Less Traveled

Key Learnings from Working Backward from a Decision

Chapter 4: Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator

Part 1: Assessing the Data and Its Reliability

What Data Was Collected?

What Data Am I Not Seeing?

Can I Trust the Data and Analyses?

Part 2: Putting the Data in Context

Part 3: Pressure Testing Your Analysis

Key Learnings from Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator

Chapter 5: Developing Intuition: The Power of Approximation

The Power of Approximations: Approximating Market Sizing

Learning to Approximate

Approximating in Practice

Why Guesstimation Works

Getting Comfortable with Approximations

Consider Approximation in Context

Statistical Significance Doesn't Mean Managerial Relevance

Guesstimation in the QI Framework

Key Learnings from Learning to Approximate

Chapter 6: From Analysis to Synthesis: Connecting the Dots

What Is Synthesis?

Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line

Why Is Synthesis Hard?

How Do We Encourage Synthesis?

Moving from What? to So What? and Now What?

Key Learnings from Synthesis: Connecting the Dots

Chapter 7: The Decision Moment

Dimensions of the Decision Moment

The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk

The Third Dimension: Trust

Striving for Measurement across Time, Risk, and Trust

Allocating Time

Measuring Risk

Measuring Trust

Reversibility and the Decision Moment

Navigating Ambiguity and Uncertainty

From IWIKs to Decisions

Key Learnings from the Decision Moment

Chapter 8: Delivering the Decision

The Story Arc in Decision-Making

Inner Voice and External Reality

Inform versus Compel

Key Learnings from Delivering the Decision

Chapter 9: Chasing the Decision

Why We Wind Up Chasing the Decision

Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision

Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome

Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision

Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision

Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision-Makers to the Decision Moment

Strategy 6: Pressure Test Decisions

Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus

The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion

Key Learnings from Chasing the Decision

Chapter 10: Building the Quantitative Intuition (QI) Team

The QI Skill Set

Building a QI Team

Your QI Role within Your Organization

Key Learnings from Hiring

Chapter 11: What's Next in Data-Driven Decision-Making?

Automation

Predictions and the Digital Twin

The Rise of Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking

Conclusion

EPILOGUE

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

INDEX

Additional information

CIN111989848XVG
9781119898481
111989848X
Decisions Over Decimals - Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information by CJ Frank
Used - Very Good
Hardback
John Wiley & Sons Inc
20220922
256
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
This is a used book - there is no escaping the fact it has been read by someone else and it will show signs of wear and previous use. Overall we expect it to be in very good condition, but if you are not entirely satisfied please get in touch with us

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