Superforecasting by Philip E Tetlock

Superforecasting by Philip E Tetlock

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters.

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, and the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

DAN GARDNER is a journalist and the author of Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best. He resides in Ottawa.

SKU	Unavailable
ISBN 13	9780804136716
ISBN 10	0804136718
Title	Superforecasting
Author	Philip E Tetlock
Condition	Unavailable
Binding Type	Paperback
Publisher	Crown Publishing Group (NY)
Year published	2016-09-13
Number of pages	352
Prizes	Long-listed for Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2015
Cover note	Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
Note	Unavailable